For Our Grandchildren's Grandchildren

There’s much debate over how soon AI and robots are going to strip away human labor, with predictions (documented elsewhere in this book) that establish a range of displacements and associated dates. In general, this disruption is already underway, will heat up to occupation-destroying intensity by 2030, with double-digit workforce reductions over the next generation.

Regardless of how accurate these predictions turn out to be, we can say at this point with firm certainty that AI and robotics have the potential to eliminate human labor altogether, if we choose to go that route – and that it will not take millennia to get there.

A strong estimate has been culled from a formal study conducted at Oxford University in 2018, in partnership with Yale University, that surveyed the AI’s field’s experts for their predictions.

In that study, “When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts”, Grace, Salvatier et al conclude that this singularity will appear in around 120 years – somewhere around 2140.

The paper predicts AI-based language translation by 2024 (we’re already there); AI-composed high school essays by 2026 (we’re already there); self-driving trucks by 2027 (we already have them, just not in commercial service yet); AI working in retail by 2031 (on the drawing board).

More ambitious deployments include AI-written bestsellers by 2049 (it will surely be sooner) and robot surgeons by 2053 (already being prototyped).

The authors of the paper suggested that there is 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks by 2065. They project that all human labor will be fully automated by 2140 (interestingly, Asians surveyed for the study placed the singularity much sooner than others).

Again, we debate a great deal about the timing and sequence of the coming disruption, but we agree that it is in fact on its way, and I think we can admit that it will eventually be all-pervasive. There will come a day, long forecast in science fiction, when human labor is unnecessary.

By the math, that will be around the time my grandchildren’s grandchildren will themselves be becoming grandparents – 180 years after my own birth.

So – what will life look like, in 2140? How will my grandchildren’s grandchildren be living?

In a world without work, the meaning of life will need to shift. The world we live in today, the result of two centuries of capitalism and industrialization, defines us as human beings by what we do, rather than who we are. Our identities are often rooted more deeply in our profession than in any other aspect of our existence; our self-esteem is derived from whatever it is we produce.

This is misguided, even toxic, in any case; but if labor is going to vanish over the next four generations, then we need to begin dismantling that dysfunctional thinking, regardless. We will need to dig it out of our social strata, and emphasize more authentic, human features of existence to inform our self-perception. We can make a list of what those might be, of course, but it should be a blank canvas.

In a world without work, all human needs are met. With the machine providing, the imbalance between supply and demand goes away – and our notions of money, property, and class based on wealth will be meaningless. We will no longer derive our identity from our possessions, nor find ourselves positioned in society based on how much we own.

And if we are no longer scrambling over one another in an acquisitive rush to possess things, the need for politics – at least where class is concerned – goes away. Human governance will no longer require politics as such, as stratified social groups will dissolve and won’t be needing representation.

We’re left with the search for meaning, which is our birthright in any case. Life has always been about the search for meaning, and we’ve historically sought out easy answers – religion, ideology, and certainly the work we do. But the quest for meaning is never completed so easily. The difference in that far-off decade is that there will be plenty of time for pursuing that quest.

The traditional retort to the world-without-work question is usually something along the lines of, We’ll all die of boredom! We’ll get lazy and slothful! But that’s also far too simplistic.

What do you yourself do when you’re not working? You spend time with friends and family. You travel. You invest in hobbies and projects of interest. You seek out entertainment which cheers you or challenges you. You experience meals and recreation and drink and sex and contemplation. You work on improving yourself, expanding your worldview. (And if you don’t - shouldn’t you?)

The list any of us might write would contain some or all of these, and so we have an answer: in a world without work, we will simply do more of whatever’s on our list – and we will add to that list over time.

Of course, a workless world may or may not be this welcoming and egalitarian. Whatever happens with AI, and whenever the end of work arrives, we will still have among us a class of people intent on seeking a different outcome: social dominators.

In every society, every community, back to the dawn of history, there have been individuals who wish to rule over others – to control them, decide for them, dominate them. From kings to tyrants to despots, we recall thousands of them. Today, they populate our halls of governance, our pulpits, the C-suites of our businesses. They are attracted to power, for nothing satisfies them more. They are the first to run for office, the most eager to speak for God, the best corporate ladder-climbers. It is they who are most prevalent among the 1%.

And they will take the opportunity that mass unemployment, social and economic disruption, and political uncertainty presents in the coming decades to seize control via AI.

Job #1, in securing the future for our grandchildren’s grandchildren is ensuring that this doesn’t happen. That starts with political vigilance, and requires the active participation of everyone who cares about that future in all our elections, deliberations, and public discourse, moving forward.

And if we do manage to leverage AI to escort all of humanity, and not just the elite, into a prosperous and benevolent future, we’ll still need answers to those other problems: how do we uproot the idea that we are defined by what we do, rather than who we are? Where should we be seeking for self-esteem, and how do we ensure that our grandchildren know where to seek it? Where can we find meaning and purpose? And what options stand before us, in improving ourselves and humankind overall?

We need to get to work on these things now, not later, because putting them in place – given the entrenchment of the industrial revolution mindset that still permeates society – is the work of decades.

And now we’re counting down...