Above, we noted the prediction that all human labor – every job humans currently do – will be taken over by AI in the next 12 decades. One hundred and twenty years.
I am, today, a grandfather – and 120 years puts us in the midlife of my grandson’s grandchild’s grandchild. That’s five generations ahead.
And so, in thinking about that potential future, I’m reaching for perspective by considering the four generations behind – the days of my grandfather’s grandfather.
He was a Kentucky farmer in the mid-18th century, and became a father himself around 1880. My great-grandfather owned a country store that included a blacksmith shop, which he ran with his wife.
His son, my grandfather, was born in 1906, and also farmed, but was professionally a soil conservation agent for the federal government.
My father, born just as World War II had begun, learned farming, but became a pastor.
I was born in 1961, just as Project Mercury was commencing. I am a technologist and a writer.
My first son was born in the Eighties, and is a restaurant manager.
My grandson, born in the new millennium, has just begun college and is destined to be an engineer. [While it may seem sexist that I am speaking most of male ancestors, there’s a reason: few of my grandmothers had occupational roles beyond the home, owing partly to their membership in a Fundamentalist community. Among my own offspring, I lead with my oldest son because every family male mentioned so far was a first son; and my grandson is my only grandchild. To balance this out, I’ll refer to all potential progeny as female.]
And here we are, at the tipping point of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the Second Machine Age: the disruptive, transformative advent of a second superior intelligence on earth.
What happens next?
First, let’s summarize:
1870s – great-great-grandfather: farmer
1900s – great-grandfather shopkeeper/blacksmith
1930s – grandfather: soil conservation agent
1960s – father: pastor
1990s – me: technologist/writer
2010s – son: restaurant manager
2030s – grandson: engineer
Okay so far?
Let’s say my grandson (who just turned 20) has a child in the next decade. When grown – in the mid 2040s – that child will not find, among their job options, farming; it has been all but eliminated by corporate takeover, and the percentage of workforce dedicated to it has dropped from over 40% to less than 2% over the past century. In 25 years, it will be an industry completely corporate-owned, and completely roboticized.
Blacksmithing is already in the past, and shopkeeping is right behind it; AI is devouring retail, and that workforce will be all but gone by 2045.
Public service will still be around then (although it’s doubtful that soil conservation agent will still be a human occupation), so there might be something there.
Could she be a pastor? If she’s a she, she’ll need to be in some church other than the one I grew up in, which forbids women positions of leadership (though this barrier is unlikely to persist, if that denomination survives another generation, given the current social climate). But yes, if my great-grandchild seeks to be a religious leader, that will still be a human job, untouchable by AI (see “Social Structures of Online Religious Communities”, Hughes/Robinson 2009).
Technology and engineering are two of the four pillars of STEM, so there will still be work in both. As for writer? Having been one all my life, I’m wrestling with the existential dread of the day, which will arrive around the same time as my great-grandchild, when AI can write a bestselling novel on its own.
Other career options in the mid-21st century?
Artificial general intelligence will have arrived, but will not likely yet be all-pervasive. All of the service industry, retail, transportation, manufacturing, and “assistant” jobs will be gone. On the other hand, law, healthcare, construction management, emergency services will all present options, and areas where people won’t trust AI even if it is competent – politics, counseling, etc. - will remain available.
In this decade, social transformation to provide for the reduction in jobs will have begun. Many will be living with government income support. And while robots are building things, human craftwork – custom woodwork, metalwork, stonework – will remain a valuable commodity as a novelty, even if robots can duplicate or even surpass it.
2050s – my great-granddaughter: lawyer, doctor, counselor, engineer, craftsperson
And a generation beyond that, in the 2080s, my grandson’s granddaughter will live in a world with an order of magnitude fewer jobs than her parents did. AI will, by this time, have opened up several new technology verticals – virtual reality designer, smart city engineer – but these jobs will be comparatively few, and mostly in the STEM domain.
2080s – my grandson’s granddaughter: lawyer, doctor, therapist/counselor, engineer, craftsperson
And as the 22nd century approaches?
The world’s level of automation will be staggering. Robots of all shapes and sizes – and, yes, some of them humanoid – will be everywhere, and all physical labor will fall to them.
AI will have long since infiltrated verticals and domain where they were not initially trusted – we will rely on them for a great deal of governance, for instance, and they will have annexed the practice of law – and the human workforce will have dwindled to no more than 5 percent of the global population. Even so, there will still be professions that are human-only, because that human touch is still essential to some degree – assuming she feels the need to work at all:
2110s – my grandson’s great-granddaughter: doctor, therapist/counselor, designer, craftsperson
And her daughter? Once the 22nd century is rolling, there may be no “jobs” at all anymore; all human resources may be automated, and even money might be obsolete, in an energy-rich, labor-free economy.
As my grandchild’s grandchild’s grandchild approaches middle age, she will have already lived a life of comfort and plenty without having had to “earn” it. She will lead any life she chooses, working only as she chooses, and focusing on whatever is personally important to her. She can invest herself in art, community, humanity, or exploration – whatever she wishes.
2040s – my grandson’s granddaughter’s daughter: artist, writer, poet, musician, humanitarian, athlete, explorer
To summarize:
1870s – great-great-grandfather: farmer
1900s – great-grandfather shopkeeper/blacksmith
1930s – grandfather: soil conservation agent
1960s – father: pastor
1990s – me: technologist/writer
2010s – son: restaurant manager
2030s – grandson: engineer
2050s – great-granddaughter: lawyer, doctor, counselor, engineer, craftsperson
2080s – grandson’s granddaughter: lawyer, doctor, therapist/counselor, engineer, craftsperson
2110s – grandson’s great-granddaughter: doctor, therapist/counselor, designer, craftsperson
2040s – grandson’s granddaughter’s daughter: artist, writer, poet, musician, humanitarian, athlete, explorer
I look at this timeline, this glance backward and forward, and I don’t see opportunity receding; I seem humankind moving forward, and the world getting better and better for my descendants. And I have to say, it’s pretty cool to actually be a part of it...
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